According to the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production is expected to decrease by 0.5 mb/d (-4%) in 2020 to an average of 11.8 mb/d . It would be the first annual decline in crude oil production since 2016. In 2021, US crude oil production should decrease by another 0.7 mb/d (-6%) and would reach 11.1 mb/d. In addition, US motor gasoline consumption is set to fall by 9% in 2020 to 8.4 mb/d, while jet fuel and distillate fuel oil consumption decreasing by 10% and 5%, respectively.
With the expected decline in crude oil production, US net crude oil imports are planned to increase in 2020, while fewer barrels will be available for exports. Net exports should decline due to this lower production and to a reduced global demand, leading the United States to become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and to remain a net importer in most months through the end of 2021.
The EIA indicates that its forecast is subject to a high uncertainty due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on energy markets, which is still evolving. Moreover, the government agency assumes no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement.