According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil and gas production in the United States continued to increase in 2019 and should follow an upward trend until 2021.
According to preliminary estimates, US crude oil production rose by nearly 12% in 2019, and is expected to increase by 9% in 2020 and 3% in 2021, especially in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. This higher production cut net imports of crude oil and petroleum products by an estimated 78% in 2019 (down to 0.5 mb/d) and the EIA foresees that the United States will be a net exporter of total crude oil and petroleum products by 0.8 mb/d in 2020 and by 1.4 mb/d in 2021.
Gas production reached a new record at 92 bcf/d (2.6 bcm/d, or 950 bcm/year) in 2019. Higher production in the Appalachian region should raise domestic gas production by 9.3% in 2020 before production declines in 2021 (-0.6%).
Lower demand from the US power sector and from overseas market reduced coal production by 14% in 2019 to 597 Mt. This trend should continue until 2021 (-3%) as the decline in the US power sector demand should slow and export demand should stabilise.
Where electricity is concerned, the EIA expects the share of gas-fired power generation to remain steady, from 37% in 2019 to 38% in 2020 and 37% in 2021. Renewable power generation should continue to progress, from 17% of the power mix in 2019 to 19% in 2020 and 22% in 2021, while the share of coal should fall again, from 24% in 2019 to 21% in 2020 and 2021. This switch in the US power mix is expected to reduce again energy-related CO2 emissions by 2% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021 (-2.1% in 2019).