According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production in the United States is expected to increase from an average of 8.9 mb/d in 206 to 9.3 mb/d in 2018, thanks to higher production in the major US tight oil-producing states, namely Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.
Texas will continue to lead US oil production, thanks to its two major producing regions, the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Unlike overall US production, which has been declining since mid-2015, production in the Permian region has continued to increase, by 5% in 2016 to 2 mb/d. This trend should continue in 2017, with Permian production reaching 2.3 mb/d in 2017 and 2.5 mb/d in 2018. Production from the Eagle Ford region has been declining since March 2015, from the average 1.6 mb/d in 2015 to 1.3 mb/d in 2016; this declining trend will continue through the first half of 2017 and should inverse in the third quarter of 2017.
The production of the Bakken and Three Forks formations, which drive crude oil production in North Dakota, has also been decreasing since 2015, due to lower prices. Bakken production is expected to remain flat through 2018 thanks to new drilling.