According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), eastern Australia could suffer from a gas supply crunch as early as 2018, due to soaring LNG exports, as the commissioning of several liquefaction plants should make Australia the second largest LNG exporter by 2018 and the largest LNG supplier for East Asian markets.
In the central scenario of AEMO's 20-year forecast to 2036, gas needs are expected to rise by 30%, from about 1,500 PJ to 2,000 PJ, driven by rising LNG exports and by a higher gas-fired power generation as coal-fired power plants will be progressively retired. However, final consumption (i.e. excluding power generation) should decline, as the growth in population should be offset by a decline in gas-intensive industry and by the gas-to-electric appliance switching trend. In addition, commodity gas prices could increase as higher-cost fields will be developed to supply LNG export plants, contributing to the reduction in domestic gas consumption.