According to a study led by the National Energy Board (NEB) of Canada and the International Energy Agency (IEA), major energy efficiency improvements and the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources could reduce CO2 emissions from Canadian buildings by 80% by 2050.
The energy consumption of buildings could fall by as much as 35% by 2050 (compared to 2018), using known technologies and without reducing building energy services. Most of the fall in energy consumption (85%) would come from heating and cooling uses, which currently account for 65% of energy consumption in buildings in Canada. The renovation of existing buildings and the construction of new high-efficiency ones could result in a significant improvement in the average space heating intensity by 2050, when zero-energy-ready buildings will become the market standard.
Electricity is expected to continue to dominate building energy consumption in provinces with large hydropower infrastructures, such as Quebec or Manitoba. Electric heat pumps could progressively replace electric resistance heating, lowering energy consumption. The use of modern biomass technology for heating should increase in Quebec, Atlantic provinces and the prairies. Gas should continue to dominate in Western Canada and Ontario, but more efficient equipment (gas thermal, hybrid and electric heat pumps) would be introduced.