CNPC expects Chinese energy demand to peak in 2040

18 Aug 2017

According to long-term forecast by Chinese state-owned oil group China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), China's energy demand is expected to peak at 4.06 Gtoe in 2040, as energy demand from the transportation sector is expected to rise through 2050; in a previous forecast (2012), CNPC expected transportation demand to peak 20 years earlier and energy demand to peak at 3.75 Gtoe in 2035. China total energy consumption reached 3.12 Gtoe in 2016.

Oil demand should peak at 690 Mt/year (13.8 mb/d) by 2030, growing by 2.7%/year until 2020 and by 1.2%/year between 2020 and 2030. Gasoline consumption should peak as soon as 2025, shortly after the United States.

While Chinese oil consumption is slowing down, renewable energies and gas are gaining momentum and are expected to replace coal as the largest fuel for power generation by 2030. They should account for more than half of the power mix by 2045. Gas consumption should rise from 203 bcm in 2016 to 620 bcm in 2030, while electricity demand should reach 11,800 TWh by 2050 (5,200 TWh in 2016).

Where supply is concerned, oil production should remain stable at around 200 Mt (4 mb/d) through 2030, when it will start to decline. Gas consumption should reach 380 bcm by 2050, up from 137 bcm in 2016, when it will account for nearly 15% of global gas production.

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