Tasked with meeting the bulk of India’s coal demand, the state-owned enterprise Coal India expects its production target for 2019 (660 Mt) to be 20% inferior to total supply requirement (828 Mt), with coal supply deficit reaching 168 Mt. Demand from power utility could reach 575 Mt and needs of the non-regulated sector (i.e. sponge iron, cement and steel) could attain 115 Mt. In addition, Coal India plans to auction 99 Mt of coal, on top of its temporary supply commitment of 35 Mt and 4.5 Mt as part of its import substitution effort. Overall, total demand for coal will reach 828 Mt. If extra demand materializes, the figure could reach 922 Mt. Nevertheless, CIL anticipates a progressive decline of the coal supply deficit, from 168 Mt in 2019 to 71 Mt in 2022-2023, 1 Mt in 2023-2024 and to a surplus of 71 Mt in 2025-2026. If additional supply commitments are considered, the deficit would reach 185 Mt in 2022-2023, 115 Mt in 2023-2024 and 53 Mt in 2025-26.
According to CIL, coal consumption in India grew to 955 Mt in the 2018-2019 year (from April 2018 to March 2019), while coal production reached 730 Mt, of which 607 Mt from state-run producer CIL. The supply shortfall more than doubled to 230 Mt. Consequently, coal imports rose by 13% to 235 Mt.