According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Canada will fall short of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, unless it takes actions beyond the efforts already underway. The CER released three scenarios on how possible energy futures might unfold for the country in the long-term.
In its most optimistic scenario (Global Net Zero), in which Canada reaches net-zero by 2050 through new actions and the world limits global warming to 1.5°C, Canadian crude oil production would peak in 2026. Output would fall to 1.2 mbl/d by 2050, from a record 5 mbl/d in 2022.
In a second scenario (Canada Net Zero) in which Canada achieves net-zero by 2050 but the rest of the world moves slower, Canadian oil production would rise until 2029 and fall to 3.9 mbl/d in 2050.
Under the third scenario (Current Measures), in which Canada and the world take little additional action to reduce emissions, oil production would peak in 2035 at 6.2 mb/d.
In both net-zero scenarios, electricity demand is expected to double by 2050 if Canada achieves its 2050 target, and the country will be producing power by almost entirely zero-emission or low-emissions technologies, led by an important increase in wind power generation.