The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has released its 2014 Crude Oil Forecast, which projects crude oil production to increase by an average 4%/year until 2030, from 3.5 mb/d in 2013 to 4.9 mb/d in 2020 and to 6.4 mb/d in 2030. This increase would be fuelled by the development of oil sands, whose production is expected to grow from 1.9 mb/d in 2013 to 3.2 mb/d in 2020 and 4.8 mb/d in 2030. Conventional oil production in Western Canada, including condensates, remains stable at 1.5 mb/d and Eastern Canadian offshore production declines to about 90,000 bbl/d. Conventional oil production continues to reverse its previous long decline because of the continuing use of horizontal and multi-fracturing drilling techniques. Increased drilling in liquids-rich areas has also reversed a declining production trend for condensates, a light oil often used as diluent in the oil sands.
In its 2013 forecasts, the CAPP estimated total production in 2030 at 6.7 mb/d, oil sands production at 5.2 mb/d, and conventional production at 1.4 mb/d. The lower increase in oil sand production reflects increasing uncertainty regarding project timing related to cost competitiveness and capital availability.