Canada's energy regulator, the National Energy Board (NEB), has updated its long-term energy outlook (the previous report was released in January 2016), lowering both the future price of crude and the estimated increase in Canadian oil production by 2040.
According to the revised forecast, energy consumption in Canada will continue to grow until 2040, though at a slower pace than in the NEB's last projections. Crude oil production should also continue to grow at a slower pace than previously planned, from 4 mb/d in 2015 to 5.7 mb/d by 2040 (nearly 0.4 mb/d less than forecast in January 2016). In the power sector, renewables should continue to gain momentum: hydropower capacity should increase by 15% between 2015 and 2040, while wind and biomass capacities should more than double over this period. Coal-fired generation should decline by 10% between 2015 and 2040, due to federal regulations and the planned phase-out of coal power in Alberta by 2030. Consequently, coal-fired generation without CCS should account for a marginal share of the Canadian power mix by 2040.