Brazil unveils its Energy Development Plan by 2029

The Minister of Mines and Energy of Brazil and the Energy Research Office (EPE) have released the 10-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2029 (Plan Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2029, PDE 2029), its annual report indicating the prospects for the expansion of the energy sector in Brazil over a ten-year horizon. Brazil’s investment needs in energy infrastructure over the next ten years will reach BRL2,340bn (US$538bn), with 80% for the oil and gas sector (including 74% for exploration and production and 3% for biofuels) 15% for power generation and 4% for power transmission.

The PDE 2029 forecasts a 2.6%/year growth in energy demand over the next decade and a 48% share of renewables in the energy mix in 2029, including 17% of bagasse, 12% of hydropower, 7% of wood biomass and 12% of other renewables. The share of oil products should slightly decline from 34% in 2019 to 32% in 2029. Electricity consumption is expected to rise by nearly 11% between 2019 and 2029 and the installed power capacity is set to increase by 75.5 GW (+43%), with 60 GW of new on-grid capacity and 15.5 GW of off-grid capacity. Brazil should add 11 GW of distributed micro- and mini-generation capacity (mainly solar PV). Where power transmission is concerned, the power grid should increase by 32%, from over 154,400 km in 2019 to more than 203,400 km in 2029.

The PDE 2029 expects oil production to increase by 70% over the next decade, and oil exports by 130%. Most of the production increase should come from pre-salt production (+10%/year). In addition, natural gas output should rise by 74%.