Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asia and the Pacific’s primary energy demand is projected to increase by 2.1%/year over the 2010–2035 period, faster than the projected world average growth rate of 1.5%/year. CO2 emissions will rise at a pace of 2.0%/year, slightly slower than the energy demand.
Fossil fuels should continue to dominate the primary energy mix in Asia and the Pacific through 2035, increasing their share from 82.4% in 2010 to 83.2% by 2035, with an increase in coal demand (1.7%/year) lower than the overall primary energy demand. Demand for oil will increase by 1.9%/year while natural gas consumption is expected to soar at a pace of 3.9%/year.
Driven by economic and industrial development and higher living standards, electricity demand in Asia and the Pacific is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2035, reaching 16 169.2 TWh in 2035. Accordingly, electricity generation is projected to follow the same pace to achieve 18 531.9 TWh in 2035, with coal continuing to dominate the electricity generation mix. The share of new and renewable energy is expected to increase in electricity generation from 1.9% in 2010 to to 7.1% in 2035.
To meet energy demand in the BAU case, Asia and the Pacific as a whole will need a cumulative investment of about $11.7 trillion in the energy sector, from upstream energy extraction and production to midstream energy transformation and transportation to downstream energy distribution.