According to the Asian Development Bank latest forecast, Asia and the Pacific’s primary energy demand is projected to increase at 2.1%/year over the outlook period (2010–2035)—faster than the projected world average growth rate of 1.5%/year during the same period. With this growth, primary energy demand of Asia and the Pacific will reach 8,358 Mtoe by 2035, up from 4,985 Mtoe in 2010. While Asia and the Pacific’s projected primary energy demand growth will be faster than the world average, the trend will be slower than the historical one, and energy intensity (energy
needed to produce one unit of gross domestic product [GDP]) will be decoupled from the GDP growth through 2035, in view of the assumed steady improvement in energy efficiency and some shifts in economic structure.
Primary energy demand is projected to increase faster among developing members than among developed members, growing at 2.3%/year through 2035, sustained by the assumed economic growth rate of 5.6%/year (2010–2035). By contrast, the Developed Group’s primary energy demand will decline at an annual rate of –0.01% through 2035 because the relatively slow growth in Australia and New Zealand will be offset by the projected decline in Japan’s primary energy demand. As a result, members will increase their share of primary energy demand in Asia and the Pacific to 92% in 2035 from 87% in 2010. In contrast, the share of the Developed Group will be reduced to 7.6% in 2035, from 13% in 2010.