The French Environment and Energy Management Agency ADEME (Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie) has outlined a study regarding the possible trajectories for the evolution of the 2020-2060 French electricity mix. It compares the complete cost of several evolutions in the French electricity system between 2020 and 2060, taking into account the latest national objectives set in the energy planning (Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie): raising the share of electricity in the energy mix, cutting the share of nuclear to 50% of power generation by 2035 and raising the share of renewables in the power mix to 36.5-40% by 2030.
The ADEME forecasts a lowering of the cost of electricity for the French consumer thanks to the development of renewable energies, which are predicted to account for 85% of the energy mix in 2050 and 95% in 2060 in all scenarios (excepted the one with ambitious EPR development). The average cost of electricity would be reduced accordingly to €90/MWh (compared to the current €100/MWh) in spite of the predictable increase in the price of fossil fuels and CO2. In most scenarios, financial support measures could be removed as of 2030 for ground-mounted PV and as of 2035 for onshore wind.
The study also show than an extension of a part of the existing nuclear fleet would allow an efficient energy transition process from an economic and climatic point of view, while the development of the EPR sector would not be competitive. The construction and start-up of a single EPR in 2030 would require a minimum of €4bn to €6bn of public support because of its high costs.