See also
Power Price Projections
Annual projections of wholesale price up to 2050, based on a 360° approach of the energy markets, enabled by the globally recognised POLES model.
Projecting Power Prices in a high-volatility era
The 2021–2022 energy crisis served as a significant wake-up call for the European power market. Record-high power prices led to bankruptcy of several power system actors that had insufficiently secured their supply.
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Reconciling Producers from PV and Consumers
The photovoltaic (PV) market is currently at a turning point, facing diverging and complex influences. While the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar PV is stagnating or increasing and public tender volumes are shrinking, solar capture rates are steadily declining due to the growing penetration of renewables in a sluggish demand context.
Consequently, solar PV is no longer the low-risk asset it used to be. As traditional Pay-As-Produced contracts decline and the PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) buyer profile shifts toward smaller, more demanding companies, a new model for PV financing needs to emerge. Risk and asset valuation must now deeply integrate uncertainties regarding future power prices.
To help you navigate these shifts, Enerdata hosted an exclusive webinar featuring experts from our Power Markets team. They addressed the following key questions:
- How can we reconcile solar power producers and consumers in the long term?
- How can solar PPAs regain their attractiveness?
- What market reforms are necessary to secure long-term investments?
- What is the specific impact of data centres and Artificial Intelligence on power?
Evolution of European* average spot price and solar capture price in Enerdata's Central scenario (2027-2037)
Source: Enerdata – Power Price Projections
*Average data over 11 bidding zones representing 70% of EU27+GB demand, weighted by total demand.
During this webinar, our experts went through different aspects of power prices:
- Context and status of solar PPAs: Understanding the drivers behind the slowdown of PPA adoption, capturing rate drops, and retail price evolutions.
- Modelling power prices evolutions: Exploring systemic scenarios (EnerBase, Central, EnerBlue), demand hypotheses, and the impact of CO2 and gas prices on long-term electricity prices.
- Impact on the future of PPAs: Adapting to the new market reality with 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) supply strategies, hybrid PPAs, and participation in ancillary services.
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