Energy Research & Data

European Power Markets Outlook

The alternative for robust power price forecast and analysis

European Power Markets OutlookAt last a ready-to-use Information Service offering premium electricity market price forecasts! European Power Markets Outlook deep dives into every country's market leveraging a proven optimisation model and a recognised power expertise. The Service1 enables you to grasp the full picture on the power sector at national level, including main market drivers, and draws detailed market price projections to 2050.

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1 codeveloped with Compass Lexecon

Why Subscribe?

  • Direct and instant access: no need to purchase a model or to commission a consultancy
  • Clear and readable: no need to be a modelling expert; assumptions and outputs are made explicit through tables, graphs, and insightful analysis
  • Trustworthy: combines the strength of Enerdata’s market intelligence and demand expertise and a solid and reputable optimisation model, specifically designed to handle renewable power generation.
  • Comprehensive approach: one 30-page report by country+ one Excel file containing over a dozen datasheets
  • Extended geographic coverage: all main European countries/markets
  • Most cost-effective option on the market: subscription-based

 

Key Features

 

  • Analytical country reports with annual market forecasts to 2050 (demand, capacities, generation, prices).
  • Excel dataset with comprehensive and detailed forecasts
  • 1 baseline scenario
  • Main European countries covered
  • Bi-annual updates
  • OPTION: Premium version offering:
    • hourly granularity
    • captured prices
    • additional scenarios
    • further customisation

Country Report

  • Key country metrics
  • Main players (government bodies and companies)
  • Historical prices and correlation with commodity prices
  • Key drivers of price formation
    • Commodity prices
      • Fuel price (gas, coal, CO2): historical and projection
      • Resulting Short Run Marginal Costs (SRMC) of production (gas, coal): historical and projections
    • Supply and demand levels
    • Power demand projections with Baseline scenario
    • Capacity assumptions with focus on RES policies and relevant thermal capacity phase out
    • Regulation and market design
    • Clean energy package
    • RES subsidy regime
    • Interconnections
    • Power market outlook to 2050 with annual evolution of demand, capacity and generation and power price outlook
  • Additional analysis (for PREMIUM option only):
    • Description of key uncertainties
    • Description of additional scenarios (high/low)
    • Hourly power price duration curve
    • Marginal unit duration curves
    • Captured price projections for specific technologies
    • Focus on flexibility sources (demand & supply) running regime

Excel Dataset

  • Annual power prices per bidding zone to 2050
  • Generation
  • Emissions from power generation
  • Grid exchange
  • Power prices 5-year forecast (benchmark with selected EU countries)
  • Power demand outlook
  • Installed capacity
  • Interconnection capacity
  • Commodities price forecast
  • Historic power prices

 

Countries Covered

Main European countries

+ Baltic countries

+ Eastern Europe and Greece

 

EU power prices forecast: Country List

EUROPE

Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Great Britain
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland

BALTIC COUNTRIES

EASTERN EUROPE AND GREECE

countries covered

Methodology

  • The model constructs supply in each price zone based on individual plants
  • Zonal prices are found as the marginal value of energy accounting for generators' bidding strategies
  • Takes into account the cross-border transmission and interconnectors and unit-commitment plant contraints
  • the model is run on the commercial modelling platform Plexos using data and assumtpions constructed by FTI-CL Energy

 

EPMO model

Previews

 

European Power Markets Outlook content

European Power Markets driver

 

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