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Executive Briefs

New! 2016 was a turning-point in a 70-year drive to remove global trade barriers. After several years of accelerating undercurrents against global trade, new leaders were elected in free-trade champions with clear mandates to break with the past.

Today, just one Floating LNG (“FLNG”) unit is “on site”, and has yet to announce commercial operation. A handful more have made it through FID, but many have not moved beyond the concept stage.
In the case of Shell, projects have been stayed by political issues and changing economics. Petronas has niche developments, accessing domestic gas fields with FLNG, and has rescheduled deployment of a second vessel.

Following the COP21 meeting in Paris in December 2015, there is now a much wider emphasis on reducing emissions globally. International shipping remains the most valuable mode of international trade and globalisation.

 

This analysis has been written by Thierry Bros member of Enerdata’s Expert Panel and natural gas market expert.

 

 

 

The old gold plated strategy failed to address new risks

 

It is important to bear in mind that building an international pipe is the most difficult part of the gas chain as it needs:

 

 

 

This analysis has been written by Patrick Criqui member of Enerdata’s Expert Panel and Senior Researcher at CNRS. Oil less than 30 dollars per barrel ($/bl)! No market observer would have thought this possible after only one year. Just as in 1998, it was thought that oil (then $20/bl) wouldn’t exceed $30: 10 years later, it was more than $110 on annual average after peaking at $147 following the economic crisis in 2008!

Dr. Patrick Criqui, senior researcher at LEPII-CNRS and a longtime member of Enerdata’s experts panel, has just published in the French website The Conversation the article titled, “American Shale Gas: A New Benchmark Price?”. Regularly contributing on highly discussed energy topics, Criqui addresses the recurring link between oil price and other energies. In an analysis outlining the economic crisis of 2008 and the following shale gas revolution in 2009, Criqui illustrates the competitive field between gas and oil as well as the industry’s growing impact on the international market. Will the decrease in oil prices pull down other fossil fuels?

Russia remains one of the largest oil producers in the world with 13% of the global oil supply in 2014; it is very important both for consumers and producers to have a vision of the current state and the longer-term prospects for the Russian oil industry development, especially as the current oil price conjuncture creates huge uncertainties.

In February 2015, Arun regasification terminal in Indonesia received the first cargo from the BP operated Tangguh LNG terminal.

Uranium is the only resource presently used for nuclear power generation. However it has been known since the very early days of nuclear power technology development that thorium could also be used. In this executive brief, Enerdata discusses the advantages of thorium for future nuclear technologies in terms of safety and radioactive waste management, but also the hurdles that have prevented the development of thorium based reactors so far.

Malaysian government seems to have step up its efforts to rationalize the energy subsidies. After the poor performance of Subsidy Rationalization Program (SRP) rolled out in 2010, fuel price increases in 2014 represents a renewed effort from the government to reduce the subsidy burden on the Malaysian economy. Gas prices revision for power sector in January 2014 followed by gas price revision for industry in May 2014 and again in November 2014 show the pressure on policy makers to remove the inefficient subsidies.

As part of the Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry (MESI) reforms, Malaysian government has implemented Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) from 2014. This resulted in an increase in electricity tariffs to cover the higher costs of domestic piped gas, coal and LNG. High gas subsidies, expensive LNG and declining gas production has created a supply security problem for electricity industry in Malaysia where around 45% of electricity was generated from natural gas in 2013.

On 18 October 2014, the Government of India approved the revision of domestic gas price. The new price is a volume weighted average of Henry Hub, NBP, Alberta hub and Russia gas price . Under the new price scheme, domestic gas price will be $5.61/MMBtu from 1 November 2014 to 31 March 2015. This represents an increase of 50% from US$3.8/MMBtu (Gross Calorific Value) and will be revised every six months.

The National Development and Reforms Commission of China (NDRC) has implemented another round of price reforms. Effective from 1 September 2014, the price reforms will be applied on the existing volumes of natural gas and aim to bring the price of different sources of natural gas at the same level. The hike of RMB 0.4/cm (US$0.06/cm) will be beneficial for companies in the upstream business but it can also affect the gas demand that is sensitive to the price differential between gas and fuels like gasoline and diesel.

The European Union (EU) has been recording a serious drop of its oil refined products consumption since mid-2000s, as result of fuel substitution in industry and buildings and energy efficiency improvements in transport and since 2008 the economic crisis: the EU oil refined products consumption has dropped by more than 18%, from 4,840 mbl in 2005 to 3,950 mbl in 2013.

In this article, Enerdata comments on the ongoing developments in the Singapore LNG market. We describe and provide perspectives on the challenges that Singapore faces to develop a competitive and secure domestic natural gas market and participate in the international LNG market to develop a trading hub.

In this article, Enerdata reviews the ongoing developments in the China Nuclear market. We describe and provide perspectives on the challenges that China faces to develop a domestic nuclear market and to become a global Nuclear power technology exporter.

It seems that the Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) industry may revive a new wave of interest for projects. Today we are used at GTL big size projects to enhance energy security and monetize gas as oil in place rich of gas and poor in oil. At the same time the development of new technology will allow GTL to be used in small scale. Small scale GTL will open up new resources such as capture gas from off-shore deepwater oil wells, target zero flare emissions, and make economic stranded small gas fields.

In 2013, 5.6% of global electricity production was generated by renewable sources (excluding hydroelectricity), and biomass accounted for 36% of the renewables supply.

Figure 1 : Share of Renewables (excluding Hydro) in Electricity Production

Enerdata, an independent Research and Consultancy Firm specialized in the global energy industry and carbon market since 1991, published its annual analysis of world energy demand.

Energy secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla called for more competition in the Philippine power generation sector this week, reasoning that this will produce more investment opportunities.

As part of our forecast model services, Enerdata presents its future R&D developments for the forecasting model related to electricity price in Japan. Due to high volume of expensive LNG imports, Japanese utilities companies are facing difficult times. The share of different energy sources in the power generation mix has been completely reshaped after Fukushima with an increase in thermal generation and decrease in nuclear generation that has affected the electricity price.

Natural gas has been dominating Thailand’s power mix for about three decades. While indigenous gas production in forecasted to deplete in the 2020’s decade, Thailand is relying more and more on gas imports, with a particular increase in LNG imports.

2013 is characterised by dynamic markets in the USA. Apart from the USA, the OECD countries are experiencing a mixed situation, as a result of the stagnation or the decline of their energy consumption. On the other hand, BRICS* countries, led by China, continue to show a strong growth, confirming their increasingly dominant role in the new global energy balances. As a result, energy-related CO2 emissions continue their increase (+2% in 2013, i.e.

Enerdata is launching a new LNG Market Monthly report and as part of this initiative we have put together a forward looking paper named “Natural Gas Trading Hub in Asia-Pacific”. The paper describes the latest development and trends and what a Gas Trading Hub may signify for Asia. Will Asia have one day cheap gas prices? Can after United States, European Union be a United Asia to lower the gas price?

As part of the Enerdata Forecast Services we looked at the India situation and the future of coal and its price formulas.
India has been ramping up its production and imports to satisfy the continuous request of more and more coal to be used within the country.

Global LNG industry is undergoing fast changes in terms of both supply side and demand side dynamics. Driven by the technological innovation like horizontal fracturing, supply of LNG is poised to increase substantially after 20181 .

As part of the Enerdata China energy report we focus on the carbon trading pilot schemes currently implemented in China.

The 2013 Gazprom’s results show that the Russian company is still the dominant gas exporter to the European Union (EU), which contrasts with its expected declining role announced over the past years. With 138 bcm delivered to the EU in 2013, Gazprom has increased its market share in the EU natural gas consumption from 24% in 2010 to 28% in 2013.

Analysis based on our new Myanmar country report published in March 2014.

In 2013, and for the third consecutive year, Japanese power production remained very dependent on fossil fuels. Electricity production from nuclear remained marginal (1%) as Japan, which used to generate 25% of its electricity from nuclear before Fukushima accident, took almost all of its operable nuclear reactors offline.

Enerdata is presenting a paper on 8 April 2014 at Singapore Chamber of Commerce regarding nuclear power industry with a focus for the Asia Region. As part of the paper work we looked at the main Asian providers of nuclear technology namely, Toshiba, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

As part of our South East Asia Gas & Power Service we look at key international players that can have an impact into the Energy Industry of the region. This week analysis is about Gazprom, the Russian based company with the biggest world supply of gas. Russia is strategically and geographically connected with Europe and China two major energy users. With Europe there are already several gas pipelines that supply gas to European countries and on the other hand with China they have been having talks about a new gas pipeline for many years now that soon or later will materialise.

To support the EU’s process of moving towards a low carbon economy, Enerdata recently produced detailed quantified scenarios for the energy sector and GHG emissions for the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). These scenarios and the public report assess costs and benefits to individual EU Member States under different scenarios of climate targets, effort sharing and renewables contribution to 2030, including abatement costs, permit trade, renewables support, improved air quality, and diversity of energy supply.

Japan remains the Asian country with the highest electricity and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices. Electricity prices in Japan have increased substantially in the post Fukushima years because of increased natural gas usage for electricity production. LNG demand and prices in Japan for the past five years have been increasing and the forecast for the next 10-15 years shows that the situation is not going to change.

The high cost and sketchy reliability of electricity supplies in the Philippines are now the main deterrents to investing in the country, according to foreign business leaders who see the problem as a persuasive reason to invest elsewhere.

India, the world''s fifth largest wind power producer in 2013, has set up an ambitious plan to boost solar and wind capacities to contribute to meet the strong projected demand. The government aims to double its wind installed capacity by March 2017 (end of the 12th Plan) by adding 20 GW to its current capacity of 20.3 GW (at year-end 2013). In addition, India also targets to install 10 GW of solar capacity, i.e. almost fourfold its capacity at year-end 2013 (2,4 GW).

In recent years, large reservoirs of natural gas have been found in particular in the Rovuma basin and gas resources are estimated at around 5 000 bcm ie more than twofold Qatari resources.

Australia to scrap carbon tax from July 2014. Extracts about CO2 emissions in Australia from the Australian energy report.

Germany Energy Market

13 Sep 2013

Following the regular decrease in the share of solid fuels in the electricity mix from 2000 (53%) until 2010 (43%) in Germany, its share is rising again to offset the reduction of the power produced by the nine nuclear units closed in 2011.

Among G7 countries, strong countervailing effects were observed between gas and coal in the USA and in Europe. The massive development of unconventional gas production in the USA has made domestic Henry Hub gas prices drop by 30% in 2012, from US$4/MMBtu on average in 2011 to US$2.75/MMBtu in 2012 (yearly averages).

Enerdata published its annual analysis of world energy demand, based on its 2012 data for G20 countries.
This report confirms several ongoing trends initiated in previous years, and notes an acceleration for some of them. Beyond these trends, noticeable shifts are the significant variations within the power mix, particularly between gas and coal, and the growing weight of the BRICS1.

Despite the global cost reduction of renewable energy sources, 2012 has shown a slowdown in the progression of new installations compared to the trend observed over the last five years.

This article looks at the overall benchmarking of energy efficiency performances and policies. It discusses how country comparisons in terms of effort and achieved results can be carried out and compared1.

Korea has not made any greenhouse gas emission commitments within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol. South Korea aims to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 4% by 2020 compared to their 2005 level.

An analysis of whether the European Union will be able to achieve its 2020 and 2050 objectives in terms of emissions reductions and penetration of renewables in its energy mix.

With a 75% share, hydroelectricity is by far the main contributor to electricity generation from renewables in Europe. In 2011, it accounted for 16% of total electricity production and more than 20% of the total installed generation capacity. With 220 GW of installed capacity , hydroelectricity still dwarves wind power that stands at 96 GW.

Turkey Gas Market

14 Feb 2013

Turkey expected the natural gas demand to rise to 85 bcm in 2015, and planned to greatly develop the electricity production capacity from gas. To supply that demand, the country signed many gas supply contracts.

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced an upcoming golden age for natural gas with the strong growth of gas demand expected in the coming years, especially in Asia and with the development of shale gas resources. But the picture varies by region.

Smart grids are seen by many as an effective solution to address some of the toughest challenges the electricity industry has faced so far; the integration of renewables on a very large scale, the promised rise in number of electric vehicles, the necessity of energy efficiency, the improved security of supply or the arrival of the ‘prosumer’. Equipment manufacturers and IT solution providers are eagerly awaiting the hundreds of billions of euros to be invested over the next decades.

In 2010, the French Ministry of Research funded a three-year study to analyze possible solutions leading to a reduction in CO2 emissions that could be feasibly implemented across a large city. This study sought to construct cost-effectiveness indicators in various sectors (building, transport, non-carbon energy production). Cost-effectiveness ratios measure the effort required to implement a solution and the impact in terms of CO2 savings.

In compliance with the European Directive on energy efficiency adopted in 2006 (2006/32/EC), Poland presented its National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), which lays down a final energy savings target of at least 9% in 2016, i.e. 53.5 TWh.

The Black Tuesday on July 31st marked perhaps the greatest power outage in world history: the blackout occurred in 20 of India''s 28 States and affected 3 of its 5 grids (Northern, Eastern and North-eastern). With an estimated 600 million people without electricity, 50% of the population, this large-scale incident reveals the stress the Indian power system has been experiencing over the last decade.

Solar PV

31 Jul 2012

The year 2011 was a record year for the solar photovoltaic industry, with more than 29 GW new capacity installed worldwide, corresponding to a 70% increase compared to 2010. Global PV capacity exceeded 69 GW in 2011, with 70% installed in European countries.

Implementation of biofuels polices is complex due to diversity of interests and concerns. Countries around the world are utilizing different approaches to policy design, but with common goals of supporting biofuels development and economic growth, protecting the environment, and increasing energy security. This blog examines several different approaches to policy design and the current state of biofuels production.

Over the last 20 years, coal consumption and -to a lesser extent- oil consumption have steadily decreased to the advantage of electricity in the European industry. In the meantime the natural gas penetration slowed down, stabilizing during the 2000s. What are the uses of electricity in industry? What are the reasons for this large penetration?

The country’s target is to reach 7 000 wind turbines (3 000 of which offshore) by 2020 with an installed capacity of 34 GW. In January 2010, the Crown Estate awarded nine offshore wind energy zones. The aim of Round 3 is to install a total capacity of 32 GW in the UK. Several major wind projects are scheduled for completion in 2012.

Côte d’Ivoire has an installed capacity of 1 400 MW (2011), 600 MW of which is hydro. The production assets mainly consist of 10 power plants (6 hydroelectric and 4 thermal).

Strong dependence on nuclear energy

The Japanese are large electricity consumers; their consumption per capita reached 7,700 kWh in 2010, i.e. the same level as the OECD average but 30 % higher than the EU average. The share of electricity represented about 25% of total energy consumption in 2010, compared to 21% for the OECD average and 20% in Europe. Nuclear power contributes to more than ¼ of the electricity production, the same contribution as coal and gas.

Power generation in Japan (2010)

Natural gas production grew steadily between 1991 and 2004 (by an average of 6.5%/year) and has remained relatively stable since then (44 bcm in 2010).

Energy prices in Europe have continued to increase in 2011 by almost 15%, and should continue to grow if crude oil price remain above $100/bbl. Past crude oil price increases have impacted households’ energy bill strongly. Will housing energy expenditures continue to be impacted the same way in the future?

Until recently, the main point of discord in the climate debate surrounded the opposition of investing in fossil fuels as opposed to investing in renewable sources. Since the Fukushima accident in 2011, the discussion has shifted towards the merit of investing in nuclear against investing in renewables, with the potential side-effects of nuclear technologies overshadowing the potential externalities of carbon emissions in the public debate. However, given the present and projected future technology costs, is such a divide well-founded when considering long-term climate goals?

Author: Jean-Marie Martin-Amouroux, member of Enerdata''s scientific board

This analysis relies on the ODYSSEE data base and analysis as well as on a report prepared by Enerdata for ADEME “

Discover the newest developments on the Brazilian energy market in the Brazil energy report recently published by Enerdata. Read an extract from the report focusing on the country's issues and prospects on the Brazil energy report.

Water heating represents about 15% of households’ energy uses in Europe, 20% in the United States and even 30% in Japan. Switching from electricity and gas to solar water heating could strongly reduce fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.

Development of wind power has been important in recent years and this trend is expected to continue. More and more, this source of energy represents a significant share in the energy balances of several European countries. But variability of wind power remains a major challenge of this technology. For example, a wind turbine can start producing in the middle of the night when electricity demand is very low. Statistically, we can also observe that production of wind turbines is slightly higher at night than during the day.

What are the newest developments on the Indonesian energy market ? The Indonesia energy report recently published by Enerdata suggest an extract from the report focusing on the country's electricity situation.

In recent decades, nuclear energy was perceived by many analysts, policymakers, and utility managers as a reasonably affordable option to generate bulk electricity while satisfying both supply security and climate change concerns.

World energy expenditures have more than doubled in 20 years

More than US$6,000bn1 -10% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is spent each year in the world for energy purposes. This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first.

Breakdown of the consumer energy expenditures in 1990 and 2010

Discover the newest developments on the Indian energy market in the India energy report recently published by Enerdata. Read an extract from the report focusing on the India's issues and prospects related to power supply on the India Energy report.

Since 2009, the United States has been overtaken by China as the world's largest energy consumer. The country's consumption decreased in 2008 and 2009, but in 2010 increased at the rapid rate of 3.5%, reaching 2.2 Gtoe. Per capita consumption reached 7.1 toe, including 12 000 kWh of electricity; the country consumes about twice the European average. Discover the newest developments on the US energy market in the recent United States energy report recently published by Enerdata.

Discover the newest developments on the Chinese energy market in the recent china energy report recently published by Enerdata. Read the excerpts of China Energy Report and get information about where is China investing , Gas imports and CO2 emission levels etc..

German has announced that they will abandon the nuclear power by 2022.

Enerdata analyst presents a study on the World Nuclear Energy situation post the Fukushima disaster, a defining moment for the world energy market. It includes a review of the past as well as projections on the three major scenarios that can be envisioned for the Nuclear Projects around the world.

Enerdata has just released the new Papua New Guinea energy report.

Enerdata has just released the new Uzbekistan energy report.

Enerdata has just released the new Iraq energy report.

Enerdata has just released the new Bosnia-Herzegovina energy report.

Enerdata has just released the Brazil energy report with 2007 data.

Client study PREDIT

1 Jan 2008

Enerdata will submit to the PREDIT the results of a 3 years study carried out in collaboration with the LET (Laboratoire d’Economie des Transports) on 2050 sustainable mobility scenario.

Enerdata has just released the Iran energy report with 2006 data.

Enerdata has just released the Slovenia energy report with 2006 data.

Enerdata has just released the Ukraine energy report with 2006 data.

Enerdata unveils its latest global energy demand forecasts until 2020. EnerFuture, the energy forecasting service by Enerdata, details energy demand projections for oil, gas, coal and power by sector.

A new template has been designed, to provide more analysis and insight on the energy market of a given country, and use more graphics within the text.