Up to 50% of the global car fleet could be electric* in 2050
Based on the latest update of our EnerFuture scenarios (January 2018), the share of electric vehicles in the total global car fleet could reach up to 44% in 2040 and more than 50% in 2050. These levels are achieved in our Ener-Green scenario (strong decarbonation, compatible with a 2°C temperature growth limitation); in Ener-Blue (NDCs objective achieved, compatible with a 4°C temperature growth limitation), this share hits 24% in 2040 and 33% in 2050. In 2016, with 2 million electric cars, the share of electric cars in the total car fleet reached only around 0.2%.
With 16% of the total CO2 emissions, road transportation will hence play a key role in limiting and reducing CO2 emissions. Electric cars and other decarbonated EV technologies will contribute to limiting both GHG emissions and local air pollution by displacing gasoline and diesel consumption. In 2040, up to 13 Mbl/d oil consumption could be avoided in Ener-Green (20% of the daily oil production) thanks to electric and hybrid vehicles.
Such a penetration of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on power supply and distribution grids in the residential and commercial sectors. According to Enerdata’s projections, electric vehicles would represent 7% of the total increase in electricity demand between 2016 and 2030; the IEA estimates that such a development of electric cars with unmanaged charging could result in a 30% increase of peak demand. In a 2°C world (Ener-Green), profound mutations will occur in the electricity generation sector by the mid-century: specific emissions of the power sector will be reduced by -71% globally, with a key-role for biomass, wind and CCS technologies. Addressing and mitigating the potential impact of electric vehicle charging will be essential to ensure grid stability and minimize the costs associated with such a development of electric vehicles.
*EnerGreen scenario (2°C compatible), including electric and hybrid cars
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