The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that crude oil production in the United States will average 12.4 mbl/d in 2023 and 12.8 mbl/d in 2024, which would respectively represent a 4% and 8% increase, compared to EIA’s provisional 2022 number of 11.9 mbl/d. Crude oil production would even surpass the previous record of 12.3 mbl/d set in 2019. An increased production in the Permian Basin (in Texas and New Mexico) and, to a lesser extent, in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to drive the forecast growth in production.
The EIA expects that oil production in the Permian Basin will increase by 470,000 bbl/d in 2023 and by 350,000 bbl/d in 2024, while production from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to increase by 120,000 bbl/d in 2023 but will decrease slightly in 2024. Production in other oil producing parts of the US is expected to decline slightly in 2023 and to increase by 70,000 bbl/d in 2024.