The South African Department of Energy issued the 2010 Integrated Resource Plan related to the country's energy future for the next 20 years. It sets out the outcome of the first round of work in government on an integrated electricity plan for the next 20 years. The plan supports a GDP growth trajectory of 4.6% on average over the next 20 years. It requires 52,248 MW of new capacity in order to meet the projected demand and provide adequate reserves. It assumes at least 3,420 MW of demand side management programmes, as well as a gradual reduction in electricity intensity due to increased efficiency and a diversification to secondary and tertiary sectors in the economy.
Coal is expected to account for 48% for the 2030 energy mix (from 93% currently) while renewables and nuclear will represent 16% and 14% respectively. The Goverment thus sees 1,600 MW in nuclear capacities to be developed between 2023 and 2029. This scenario provides for a 30% reduction in carbon emissions.
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