RTE has published the forecast balance of supply and demand of electricity in France. The 2013 forecast balance is characterized by a downward revision of demand forecasts due to the continuing economic crisis in Europe and France. The French domestic consumption, adjusted for weather, now tends to stagnate. Consumption in the industrial sector is more strongly affected by the crisis than in previous forecasts. At the same time, the sensitivity of the French electrical system to the vagaries of temperature continues to rise and shows that the French electrical system must guard against default risk in case of extreme weather event. The slowdown in domestic electricity consumption, which mitigated the pressure on the supply-demand balance is accompanied by a significant reduction in production capacity following the closure of oil-fired and coal throughout Europe (equivalent to 7,700 MW in France alone, which already charge for the year 3,900 MW) provided between 2013 and late 2015, as a result of new European environmental standards. Despite a slight slowdown in 2011, growth of the wind farm is expected to continue between 2014 and 2018, as well as the development of photovoltaics.
Under these conditions, the regulatory criteria of supply and demand are met in the simulations over five years. However, safety margins are shrinking year by year from 2016.
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