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Canadian crude oil production is expected to peak in 2039

26 Nov 2020

The Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) has released its Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2020) forecasts, including a "Reference scenario" that implies no additional effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions and steady demand for fossil fuels (traditional baseline projection) and a "Evolving scenario", which assumes continuing the historical trend of increasing global action on climate change.

Under this Evolving scenario, Canada’s crude oil production should increase by 18% to peak at 5.8 mb/d in 2039. Major crude oil pipeline projects under construction will be able to accommodate all future production growth in both the evolving and reference scenarios. Natural gas production is expected to increase by 17% to 18.4 Bcf/d (190 bcm/year) in 2040, spurred by increasing LNG exports. The Reference Scenario also expects higher future production for both crude oil and natural gas

Under the Evolving scenario, Canada’s domestic fossil fuel consumption, which peaked in 2019, is forecast to decline by 12% in 2030 and by 35% in 2050. However, fossil fuel consumption should still account for 60% of Canada’s fuel mix in 2050. Coal consumption should decline in the 2020s as it is phased out of power generation, while the share of electricity in end-use demand should increase to 27% in 2050. The use of renewable and nuclear electricity should increase by 31% by 2050 (+45% for renewables and +2% for nuclear); the share of fossil-free sources should increase from 23% of the energy mix in 2019 to 38% by 2050.

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