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OPEC+ agrees 206 kb/d crude oil output raise amid Middle East supply disruptions

The eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) have agreed to increase their crude oil production by 206 kb/d (OPEC+ press release, 05/04/2026). “The eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026”, said the press release. 

For May 2026, the target oil production levels and production increments for these countries are set as follows: Saudi Arabia (10.2 mb/d, +62 kb/d), Russia (9.7 mb/d, +62 kb/d), Iraq (4.3 mb/d, +26 kb/d), the UAE (3.4 mb/d, +18 kb/d), Kuwait (2.6 mb/d, +16 kb/d), Kazakhstan (1.6 mb/d, +10 kb/d), Algeria (983 kb/d, +6 kb/d), and Oman (821 kb/d, +5 kb/d).

However, the decision is symbolic, as some of its key members are unable to raise production due to the Middle East war. The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February 2026 and has cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Iraq.

“The eight countries also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability,” the press release added.

In addition, several members reported damage to their production infrastructure since the start of the war and stated that it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets, even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately. The May 2026’s increase is the same as the one the eight members had agreed on for April at their last meeting in March 2026 (KEI, 03/03/2026). However, amid the war, the oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as much as 12 to 15 mb/d, or up to 15% of global supply (Reuters, 05/04/2026).

The eight countries will meet again on 3 May 2026.