The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) has released its biennial Global Wind Energy Outlook 2016, including four scenarios exploring the future of the wind industry out to 2020, 2030 and 2050.
According to the GWEC, wind power capacity could rise from about 433 GW in 2015 to 1,260 GW by 2030 and 2,870 GW by 2050 under the New Policies scenario; wind power generation would rise from 868 TWh to 3,310 TWh in 2030 and 7,540 TWh in 2050. In the 450 Scenario, wind capacity could reach 1,454 GW (3,822 TWh) in 2030 and 3,545 GW (9,318 TWh) in 2050. It could rise to 1,676 GW (4,404 TWh) by 2030 and to 3,984 GW (10,470 TWh) by 2050 in the Moderate Scenario and even reach 2,110 GW by 2030 and 5,805 GW by 2050 in the Advanced Scenario. In that case, wind generation would cover up to 20% of global power generation, saving more than 3.3 GtCO2/year by 2030.
In all scenarios, China is expected to dominate the wind market, with 31% of total capacities in 2030 in the New Policies and 450 scenarios and 34% in the Moderate and Advanced Scenarios. The share of Europe would range between 21% and 28% by 2030, followed by North America (20-22%) and India (8-11%).
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