“Summer peak demand is forecast to grow by 224 GW, a more than 69% increase over the 2024 LTRA [Long-Term Reliability Assessment] forecast with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase”, according to North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), in its latest LTRA (NERC press release, 29/01/2026). NERC is a non-profit corporation promoting the reliability and adequacy of bulk power transmission in all the interconnected system of the continental United States and Canada, as well as a portion of the Mexican state of Baja California.
In addition, winter demand is expected to increase by 246 GW over 10 years, reflecting the evolution of electricity use. Due to uncertainty and delay in building new power plants and other resources, NERC is worried that supply will not grow fast enough to meet this rapidly rising demand. “The risk of electricity supply shortfalls is increasing during winter conditions, as generators with diverse fuels retire and are replaced predominantly by solar and batteries and natural-gas-fired generators”, indicates NERC. "While interconnection queues continue to grow, considerable uncertainty surrounds the timing and amount of resource additions."
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