The German Council of Experts on Climate Change has announced that the German annual emissions budget for the years 2021 to 2030 should be met, although several goals are estimated to be missed over time (Council of Experts on Climate Change press release, 18/05/2026). According to the council’s review report of the German greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2025 and the projection data of 2026, the country kept its GHG emissions “virtually stable” during 2025 with a decrease of only 0.1% (compared to 2024), as the increase in emissions from the buildings and transport sectors was offset by a reduction in emissions from the industry and energy sectors.
Through its review, the council concluded that the 2026 projection data underestimate the expected emission levels through 2030 by approximately 60 to 100 MtCO₂eq. Considering that current regulatory adjustments undergoing parliamentary consideration have not been taken into account and risk to further increase the discrepancy between the projection data and targets from 2030 onwards.
The targets at risk are the national 65% reduction target for 2030, the 88% target for 2040, the obligations under the European Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), the targets for the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as well as the goal of greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045.
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