According to the German energy industry association BDEW (Bundesverband der Energie und Wasserwirtschaft), the German electricity generation overcapacity is likely to disappear by 2023 with the closure of 14.6 GW of conventional thermal power capacity by the end of 2022. In the meantime, only 4.4 GW of capacity are scheduled to come onstream to replace the outdated capacity, which means that the secured generation capacity would be reduced to 75.3 GW compared to a peak demand forecast of 81.8 GW for the early 2020s.
These closures will be spread as follows: 9.5 GW of nuclear power under the nuclear exit programme (including 4.1 GW in 2021 and 4.1 GW in 2022), 2.7 GW of lignite-fired power plants under the framework of the coal-phase out policy and 3.6 GW for normal retirements. According to BDEW, 52 power projects with a total expected capacity of 22 GW are currently under development in the country, including 3.3 GW of gas-fired projects. The industry group bets on the expansion of the CHP capacity.