The French association Citepa (Interprofessional Technical Center for the Study of Atmospheric Pollution) has published the updated results of France’s GHG emissions barometer for 2025 (Citepa report, 08/04/2026).
According to the new estimates, the downward trend in emissions continues, albeit at a slower pace. The monthly barometer estimates a 1.5% decrease in GHG emissions in 2025, following a 1.8% decrease in 2024, after a more significant reduction of 6.8% in 2023. Total emissions for 2025 are thus estimated at 364 MtCO₂eq, excluding carbon sinks.
The report adds that the current pace of emission reduction (1.8% between 2023 and 2024, then 1.5% between 2024 and 2025) remains insufficient to meet the target set in France’s climate roadmap, the SNBC3. This roadmap establishes a third carbon budget of 347 Mt CO₂eq/year for 2024–2028, with an annual reduction target of approximately 4%/year to reach 279 MtCO₂eq by 2030.
Sectoral overview:
- In 2025, the manufacturing industry alone contributed 40% of the total emission reduction. Emissions in this sector decreased by 3.5% (-2.2 Mt CO₂e) due to a decline in high-emission activities (metallurgy, cement) and reduced fossil fuel consumption.
- Emissions from the energy production sector increased slightly in 2025 (+0.5% / +0.2 Mt CO₂eq), breaking the downward trend observed since 2022. The potential reduction from the decarbonization of the electricity mix has diminished, while the resumption of refining activities contributed to this increase.
- Emissions from the residential-tertiary sector fell slightly in 2025 (-1.5% / -0.9 Mt CO₂e) and reached a historically low level, although still above the level required by the SNBC3 trajectory. The decline is primarily due to lower natural gas consumption, and to a lesser extent, heating oil. It results from various factors (climate, renovations, energy prices) whose effects sometimes counteract each other, notes the report.
- In 2025, transport sector emissions fell by only 1.4% (-1.7 Mt CO₂eq), while this sector accounted for 34% of total emissions. The decrease is mainly linked to road transport (94% of emissions), where fuel sales declined despite a slight increase in traffic. Domestic aviation emissions continued to decrease. Despite these changes, the sector remains the largest emitter and is behind the trajectory set by SNBC3, requiring additional efforts.
- Agricultural emissions decreased slightly in 2025 (-1.2% / -1 Mt CO₂eq) due to a reduction in the cattle herd, while increased fertilizer use led to higher emissions from crops. This evolution is generally in line with the SNBC3 trajectory.
The Citepa is an association that produces multiple estimates of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and supports public and private stakeholders in their green transition.