Ethiopia has submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), raising its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target to 70.3% below the revised business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2035, a slight increase from the previous target of 68.8%. Under the unconditional scenario, emissions are projected to decline from 201.9 MtCO₂eq in 2025 to 141.9 MtCO₂eq in 2030, and 140.8 MtCO₂eq in 2035, achieving a 40.7% reduction compared to BAU. Under the conditional scenario, full implementation of mitigation measures would reduce emissions to 85.7 MtCO2eq by 2030 and to 71 MtCO₂eq by 2035, meeting the 70.3% reduction target.
The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector accounts for the largest share of mitigation, contributing over 77% of total reductions by 2035. Under BAU, LULUCF is projected to remain a small net sink of -5.3 MtCO₂eq in 2025, but this would expand significantly to -155.3 MtCO₂eq under the mitigation scenario.
The energy sector contributes the second largest share, representing 12.5% of the total mitigation potential by 2035, primarily driven by Ethiopia’s investments in renewable energy and clean transportation.
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