China's 15^th five-year plan aims to cut carbon intensity by 17% by 2030

In China’s latest Five-Year Plan, the country has announced its target to “accelerate the green transition” and cut CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP (CO₂ intensity) by a total of 17% in the 2026-2030 period (Chinese government press release, 05/03/2026). In China’s 14^th Five-Year Plan, the target to decrease its carbon intensity was set to 18% but it was largely missed (-12% over the last five years). This CO₂ intensity reduction focus bets on GDP growth (4-4.5%/year over the 2026-2030 period) rather than on CO₂ emission reduction.

According to the 15^th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which was submitted of deliberation to China’s top legislature, the country aims to step up its efforts to “improve the environment, boost the green and low-carbon economy” while also working towards achieving carbon neutrality. According to the announcement, the country also aims to reduce its energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) by around 10%in the period and to increase its R&D expending by 7%. 

Coal consumption is expected to peak in the 2026-2030 period (without any mention of consumption decline thereafter) and non-fossil fuels should cover 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030. China plans to prioritise domestic oil production at 200 Mt/year and to continue raising gas production and strategic oil stockpiles. It also aims at expanding its coal-to-liquids (CTL) sector, along with its renewable technologies and electric vehicles sectors.