The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has unveiled the new Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market, which forecasts the likely changes that will be occurring over the next 20 years across the domestic power market. Despite the anticipated electrification of the transport sector over the next 20 years, electricity grid demand will flatten, due to the growth of solar rooftop PV installations and energy storage coupled with energy efficiency efforts.
Existing coal-fired power plants that generate around 70 TWh/year - one third of the NEM's demand - will continue operating until the end of their operational life (by 2040 at the latest) as it would be uneconomical to retire them before the end of their operational lifespan. Replacing them later on with renewables - whose costs are falling -, gas-fired capacity, distributed generation capacity and energy storage systems (including pumped-storage) would be more cost efficient.
The domestic power grid will shift to a more decentralised system model: 28 GW of solar, 10.5 GW of wind, 17 GW of storage and 500 MW of flexible gas-fired generation will be set up along with a significant upgrade of the domestic power transmission system.