Enerdata was selected by the Region Direction of ADEME Hauts-de-France (ADEME is the French Agency for Ecological Transition), in partnership with Energies Demain, to define several scenarios aiming to achieve the objectives of the region’s Third Industrial Revolution (Rev3): climate challenge and job development. We worked on three scenarios that target a reduction in final energy consumption and an increased supply of local renewable energies by 2050.
This region’s specificity is its industrial density. Thus, the challenge is to completely transform the industries to use more sustainable evolutions that face the energy and economic crisis and create jobs. To support this, three tasks were completed:
- The evaluation of the Rev3 dynamics, 5 years after its launch
- The definition of three scenarios describing the conditions and technological options required to achieve the initial objectives by 2050: 60% reduction in energy consumption and 100% of energy being renewable
- The estimation of the projects’ consequences on jobs and training opportunities (subject of a dedicated study)
The three scenarios were based on:
- Low regional autonomy
- Strong regional autonomy
- Strong regional autonomy, optimised production, and sufficiency
- Enerdata and Energies Demain combined their complementary competences in collecting energy demand and production data on specific sectors.
- The new French regional reform aggregated several small regions into a larger region. Each small region had specific targets that Enerdata had to combine to define a single objective.
- Enerdata modelled scenarios pertinent to key sectors (transport, industry, buildings, agriculture) and sub-sectors (by household end-use, and more) for this larger region, to give concrete measurements.
- To define these scenarios, Enerdata developed a model based on the in-house model EnerMED that simultaneously simulates energy production and demand.
- Step 1: Calculation of the region’s overall objectives for 2050
- Analysis of the previous regions’ existing schemes and targets.
- Definition of a levelling method to generate the new region’s objectives.
- Fine-tuning of the hypothesis based on the ADEME scenarios “Visions 2050”.
- Step 2: Sectoral modelling – production and demand
- Data mining, desktop research and interviews: ADEME scenarios and local studies, including the new energy sources – biogas, biofuel, and hydrogen.
- Consistency check of the modelling hypothesis.
- Modelling of the energy demand and supply by sector and sub-sector, including renewable energies.
- Calculation of the energy balance, balancing of supply and demand by energy vectors, and modelling of storage solutions through hourly load profiles.
- Step 3: Results declination
- Illustration of the modelling results with relevant indicators (number of charging points, number of dwellings renovated, new installations of PV, …).
- Storytelling for each branch, to make the scenarios understandable to the public.
- Step 4: Results presentation - Workshops
- Invitation of 150 local stakeholders including non-profit organisations, industrials, lessors, energy companies, and more.
- Facilitation of workshops dedicated to each sub-sector, to present the hypothesis and scenarios, and make the actors react to the results.
- The overall goal was to enable the actors to understand the work and use the results for an informed acceptance.
- Step 5: Press conference
- Presentation of the evolution of the project “Third Industrial Revolution” 5 years after its launch.
- Presentation of the official results of our study and an evaluation of the impact on the job market in the region.
- Three scenarios and specific models based on EnerMED
- The calculation files integrating the calculations and the looping between energy production and energy demand
- The press conference and the final report, available on their website, easily understandable by the public
- One day of sectorial workshops with 150 local actors to validate the scenarios’ proposal
Final energy consumption in industry (3 scenarios)