Overview
The Enerdata Global Energy Forecasting team just released its latest 2040 world energy scenarios. Leveraging the POLES model, we offer expert foresight for strategic/business planning and policy making: analysis of energy demand, energy mix and penetration of renewables, evolutions and challenges according to climate constraints and technologies.
The publication provides a global energy overview, with a specific focus on Asia, Africa and Europe, and outcomes such as:
- 3/4 of the demand growth over 2015-2040 will come from Asia, and 15% from Africa (Ener-Blue Scenario, +3-4° temperature increase )
- One kWh of power generated will produce 75% less CO2 emission in 2040 vs 2015, (Ener-Green Scenario, +2° temperature increase )
- Universal electricity access in Africa by 2030 would require 7% of the global investments needs for the energy sector
- In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but NDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. However, the efforts defined in NDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2°C in 2100, but these efforts are compatible with a 3-4°C objective.
- Asia will account for 75% of the total primary consumption growth between 2015 and 2040 (Ener-Blue), followed by Africa (15%). In the meantime, energy intensity of non-OECD countries will converge to OECD level. In Asia, RES power capacities will reach 45% of the power mix by 2040. In Africa, reaching the universal electricity access target by 2030 would represent only 7% of the global investment needs for the energy sector ($1 trillion/yr).
- In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear transition from the current energy system towards a long-term decarbonisation, with substantial efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable energy technologies. RES and nuclear reach 70% of power capacities around 2040; there is a growing adaptation of cleaner coal technologies and a wide-scale of deployment of CCS. This new “green deal” leads to a reduction factor of 2 of world emissions by 2050.
- In the Ener-Brown scenario, oil and gas prices are expected to remain weak: prices slowly recover from present collapse, but remain well below the last decades’ highs. Confirmed energy commitments in some regions as well as technological innovation foster a significant development of low energy intensive processes and technologies. Renewables achieve a substantial deployment but affordable fossil fuels remain a competitive and attractive source of energy. Without a global agreement, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO2 emissions across the world, towards +5-6°C temperature increase by the end of the century.
Conclusions
The paper will present detailed results related to the Ener-Blue scenario (NDCs, 3-4°C), its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions, as well as its challenges in implementation. It will also show what additional commitments are needed to move from the Ener-Blue to the Ener-Green (2°C) scenario and some results for the Ener-Brown (5-6°C) scenario where fossil fuel resources are cheaper, larger and energy/climate policies are less ambitious.
Three regional focuses based on Enerfuture scenarios will present energy projection key figures for Asia, Africa and European Union.