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Our modelling experts have just issued a new analysis deep-diving into European energy demand across the transport, Buildings and Agriculture, and Industry sectors, and the key drivers behind it.
Discover the EU's energy demand across different sectors and its key associated drivers.
Transport:
How could mobility habits evolve across the 3 different scenarios? What does it take to decarbonise transport?
While EnerBase sees a continued predominance of the private vehicles share until 2050, the other scenarios reveal changes in energy consumption driven by modal shift, more robust public transport policies, and more intelligent spatial planning.
What will it take to decarbonise transport in France?
As the car remains the primary mode of transport, electrifying the vehicle fleet is a key driver for decarbonising road transport. In EnerGreen scenario, the transition to battery electric vehicles is rapid and almost complete, aiming to replace both internal combustion and transitional engines such as hybrids and gas-powered cars, which are phased out by 2040. By 2050, 97% of France’s car fleet is electric—a radical transformation driven by EU regulations and zero-emission targets.
CAR FLEET EVOLUTION IN FRANCE – EnerGreen Scenario
Source: Enerdata, Granular Energy Demand Forecast
Buildings & Agriculture 
What are the key trends in the sector and what main drivers affect them?
By dividing buildings and agriculture energy demand into sub-sectors and end-uses, it appears that residential space heating remains the primary consumption area until 2050.
2050 SNAPSHOTS – DEMAND BY FUEL, SUB-SECTOR AND END-USE IN EUROPE – EnerBlue Scenario
Source: Enerdata, Granular Energy Demand Forecast
Focusing on space heating shows that, while it remains the dominant end use in residential energy consumption, its energy demand declines significantly over time in all three scenarios, driven by a combination of structural and behavioral shifts.
FINAL ENERGY MIX FOR SPACE HEATING IN THE EU – EnerGreen Scenario
Source: Enerdata, Granular Energy Demand Forecast
Key drivers of this reduction include the renovating the building stock (in EnerGreen scenario, all buildings are renewed by 2048), the progressive electrification of heating systems, and sufficiency measures such as lower heating setpoint temperatures.
Industry:
How will the electrification of energy use help decarbonise the EU’s industry by 2050?
The electrification rate will significantly increase across all industrial sectors in EnerGreen scenario, driven by the switch of heating technology towards electricity. This, coupled with a decreasing total demand and the development of carbon capture has significant impacts: almost all of the EU’s CO2 emissions from industrial energy use are cut in 2050 in both EnerBlue and EnerGreen scenarios.
Download the full Energy Demand Scenarios presentation to get more insights on sectoral demand and drivers.
This new analysis has been conducted thanks to the release of Granular Energy Demand Forecast module from EnerFuture, which delves deep into the energy demand and its drivers at the end-use level.
This module is built on Enerdata’s EnerFuture scenarios—three distinct energy-climate projections extending to 2050 that explore potential pathways for the global energy system.
For each Enerfuture scenario, Demand Deep-Dive offers enhanced detail across demand sectors, featuring:
- 300+ new data series.
- Offers extensive sectoral, and end-use breakdowns, providing deeper insight beyond traditional sector-level data.
- Coverage across 8 European countries plus the EU aggregate.