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EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2040

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“Understanding our energy future”

The Enerdata Global Energy Forecasting experts just released their 2040 scenarios leveraging the globally recognized POLES model and the resultant EnerFuture outputs.

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Additional issues addressed by our experts:

  • Over 2013-2040, the global demand increases strongly (+50% in Balance scenario) and is driven by Non-OECD countries. New energy trends will redefine global energy balances, with Asian volumes of energy imports strongly increasing (China net imports x3 between 2010 and 2040 - Balance), whereas USA reach self-sufficiency.
  • In a context of growing energy prices and problems of access to energy in emerging markets, increased efficiency in the use of energy becomes a paramount issue; decreases in the final energy demand intensity rate are achieved at -2.3%/year (Balance) worldwide and could be accelerated under a strong climate constraint to as much as -3.2%/year (Emergence), compared to -1.2%/year in the last decade.
  • Without a stringent carbon policy, fossil fuels continue to be the main source of the global energy mix (70% to 80% for Renaissance and Balance scenarios), with gas significantly gaining market shares over oil and coal to reach 25% to 30% of the mix.

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