Publications

EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2040

17 Mar 2015

“Understanding our energy future”

The Enerdata Global Energy Forecasting experts just released their 2040 scenarios leveraging the globally recognized POLES model and the resultant EnerFuture outputs.

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Additional issues addressed by our experts:

  • Over 2013-2040, the global demand increases strongly (+50% in Balance scenario) and is driven by Non-OECD countries. New energy trends will redefine global energy balances, with Asian volumes of energy imports strongly increasing (China net imports x3 between 2010 and 2040 - Balance), whereas USA reach self-sufficiency.
  • In a context of growing energy prices and problems of access to energy in emerging markets, increased efficiency in the use of energy becomes a paramount issue; decreases in the final energy demand intensity rate are achieved at -2.3%/year (Balance) worldwide and could be accelerated under a strong climate constraint to as much as -3.2%/year (Emergence), compared to -1.2%/year in the last decade.
  • Without a stringent carbon policy, fossil fuels continue to be the main source of the global energy mix (70% to 80% for Renaissance and Balance scenarios), with gas significantly gaining market shares over oil and coal to reach 25% to 30% of the mix.