The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released figures on Henry Hub gas prices for the most recent quarter. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged USD2.93/MMBtu between June and August 2026, representing a 6% decline compared with the same period in 2025 (US EIA statement, 25/09/2026). “Prices were lower this summer despite exceptionally hot weather that increased electricity demand for air conditioning. Natural gas-fired power plants often help meet higher demand during such periods”, said the agency.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average temperature across the Lower 48 states reached 77°F (25 °C) in July, making it the warmest July on record. Higher renewable power generation, record levels of natural gas output, and substantial gas inventories helped contain upward pressure on prices. In addition, maintenance work at LNG terminals tempered demand growth from that segment.
The expansion of renewable generation capacity reduced the volume of natural gas required to satisfy stronger summer electricity demand this year. Solar generation rose by an estimated 19.4 TWh compared with the corresponding period in 2025, while wind generation increased by 9.3 TWh. Electricity generation from natural gas-fired plants grew by 7.5 TWh.
- Based on our data, more than half of the US power generation comes from thermal sources (57%), including 40% from gas and 17% from coal. The contribution of gas to the power mix expanded steadily until 2024 (+16 percentage points since 2010), largely supported by abundant domestic shale gas supplies and the shift away from coal. However, its share declined by 1 pp in 2025, reaching 40%.
- Meanwhile, the combined share of wind and solar increased from 2% in 2010 to 18% in 2025, with wind accounting for 10% (Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data).
Natural gas supply has also remained robust, reducing support for stronger Henry Hub prices this year. US gas production has repeatedly achieved new monthly highs throughout 2026, increasing the volumes available for domestic demand and exports while also replenishing underground storage facilities. In its September STEO, the agency forecasts that dry natural gas production will reach a record 111.2 Bcf/d (1,145 bcm/year) in 2026.
US gas production has continued to expand over the years. According to our data, output increased by 3.4%/year (+18%) between 2020 and 2025, reaching 1,140 bcm. This growth trajectory is broadly consistent with the pre-COVID trend (+4.7%/year between 2005 and 2019) and has been driven primarily by shale gas production, which climbed from 53 bcm in 2006 to 845 bcm in 2024, accounting for approximately three-quarters of total gas production (Enerdata Global Energy and CO2 Data).