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US EIA expects price decrease in US gasoline and diesel in 2024 and 2025

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in which it forecasts that crude oil prices in 2024 will remain similar to those in 2023 and decrease in 2025. New refining capacities commissioned in the United States in 2023 will raise the US operable capacity, easing price pressure on oil products in 2024 and 2025. In addition, new international refining capacities in the Middle East, especially in Kuwait, will contribute to ease international price pressure on gasoline and diesel prices.

The EIA expects narrowing crack spreads (the difference between the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel compared with crude oil) in 2024, resulting in lower average US retail fuel prices in 2024 and 2025: gasoline price should decline from US$3.52/gallon in 2023 to US$3.36/gallon in 2024 and US$3.24/gallon in 2025, while diesel price should dip from US$4.21/gallon in 2023 to US$3.92/gallon in 2024 and US$3.85/gallon in 2025. Fuel price forecasts remain subject to significant uncertainty.

Gasoline consumption should remain stable in 2024 and slightly decrease in 2025 (less than -1%), while diesel consumption should grow modestly (+1.3%) in 2024 and in 2025.