According to US Energy Information Administration, the country’s crude oil production is expected to fall by 910,000 bbl/d in 2020 to 11.3 mb/d (-7.4% compared with the 2019 average). The previous forecast anticipated an 860,000 bbl/d drop. In 2021, US crude oil output is expected to decline further (-1.8%) to reach 11.1 mb/d. US petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption should decline by 2.38 mb/d to 18.16 mb/d in 2020.
In addition, the parastatal forecasts that US gas production should decline by 2.3% to 90.9 bcf/d (936 bcm/year) and by another 3.3% in 2021 to 87.9 bcf/d (905 bcm/year, while gas consumption should decline by 2% in 2020 to 83.4 bcf/d (859 bcm/year), due to warmer temperatures and a slight decline in industrial consumption. US power consumption should drop by 3.9% to 3,801 TWh in 2020, before rising to 3,849 TWh in 2021. The share of natural gas in the power mix will rise from 37% in 2019 to 39% in 2020, before dropping to 34% in 2021 (expected increase in gas prices in 2021). The share of coal will decrease from 24% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 before rising back to 24% in 2021.
Overall, US energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 11% in 2020, due to the slowing economic growth in a context of the COVID-19 pandemic. CO2 emissions from coal should decrease by 19% compared to 2019 (-13% for emissions from oil). In 2021, the economic recovery and increased energy use should increase energy-related emissions by 6%.