The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil output to reach a new record in 2026, according to its latest forecast (US EIA analysis, 10/09/2026). “We forecast US crude oil production will average 13.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 13.7 mb/d set in 2025”, said the EIA.
During the first half of 2026, US crude oil production averaged 13.7 mb/d, up 2% (0.3 mb/d) compared with the same period in 2025. The increase was mainly concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and in the Federal Gulf of Mexico.
- In the Permian region, oil production is expected to average 6.8 mb/d in 2026, representing a 3% increase from 2025. Production growth in the region is being supported by higher crude oil prices (WTI), which rose from an average of USD65 per barrel in 2025 to USD84 per barrel through August 2026, exceeding the region’s average breakeven price.
- In the Gulf of Mexico, crude oil output rose by 0.2 mb/d (10%) in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025. The EIA forecasts a further 3% (0.1 mb/d) increase in oil production in 2026. The rise in production in this region in 2026 was primarily driven by four major projects that came online in 2025, with combined output of 191 kb/d.
A further four projects are expected to come online by the end of 2026, providing an additional contribution to production growth forecast for the year. The EIA stated that “Hurricanes in the Gulf of America could disrupt the production and development timeline of these new projects, although experts predict a milder-than-normal hurricane season this year”.
Since 2017, the United States has become the largest oil producer in the world. Oil production is concentrated in onshore Texas, around the Gulf of Mexico, North Dakota, California, and Alaska (Enerdata Global Energy Research). According to our data, US oil production (crude and NGL) has increased by around 4.3%/year since 2020. It more than doubled between 2011 and 2019 (+10%/year). Non-conventional sources now account for more than 50% of total oil production.