South Africa unveils its draft Integrated Resource Plan to 2030 and 2050

The South African Government has released its draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2023), which sets out how South Africa will seek to ensure security of electricity supply in the future. The draft was formally issued by the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy and will be open to public comments until 23 February 2024. The document, which was approved by South Africa’s Cabinet in December 2023, looks at two time horizons, one from 2023 to 2030 and the second from 2031 to 2050. 

The draft notably plans the introduction of 29.3 GW of new generation capacity in South Africa by 2030, including more than 7 GW of new gas projects, 4.5 GW of wind, 3.6 GW of solar PV and 6.3 GW of distributed generation. However, the government notes that up until 2030, energy security will be elusive, with a supply-demand deficit until the end of the decade, meaning that loadshedding is likely to be remain for the next seven years.

In addition, allocations for renewables are also much lower than in the country’s IRP 2019. 5.9 GW solar PV installations are expected by 2030 (against 8.3 GW in the IRP 2019), while wind capacity is projected to reach 7.9 GW (significantly less than the 17.7 GW indicated in the IRP 2019).

The second time horizon, i.e. the period from 2031 to 2050, focuses on long-term electricity generation planning with pathways to achieve a net zero electricity sector by 2050. The IRP 2023 concludes that the study period for horizon two provides evidence that while renewables would decarbonise the power sector over the next decades, they would not provide the desired security of supply.