The government of South Africa has approved the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019), a power sector development roadmap until 2030. The IRP2019 proposes nine interventions to ensure the power supply will meet energy needs over the next decade. The plan takes into account international obligations to the minimum emission standards. The IRP2019 also aims at diversifying the energy mix, to reduce reliance on coal, which covers 89% of South Africa's power generation and 70% of its primary energy consumption (2018).
Under the IRP2019, the government plans to commission 6.7 GW of new coal capacity by 2030, including the Medupi and Kusile power plants currently under construction. Meanwhile, the document foresees that 5.4 GW of old coal-fired capacity will be decommissioned by 2022, and another 5.1 GW by 2030.
Capacity additions by 2030 are planned to reach 6.5 GW of solar PV, 9.5 GW of wind and 8.1 GW of gas- and diesel-fired units. Coal will represent 44.6% of the country's installed capacity in 2030, while other fossil fuels-fired technologies will account for 15.7%, wind for 15%, solar PV for 10.5% and hydropower for 6.2%. The government will also extend the design life of the 1,940 MW Koeberg nuclear power plant, which is set to reach its end of life in 2024.
Regarding the demand, the government forecasts an annual growth rate of the electricity consumption comprised between 1.3%/year and 2%/year until 2030 (depending on the scenario), then between 1.2%/year and 1.6%/year between 2030 and 2050.
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