Russia’s coal production is expected to rise by 49% by 2050, from 443 Mt in 2024 to 662 Mt in 2050, under the target scenario outlined in the program for the development of the coal sector (Russian government statement, 23/09/2026). Under this target scenario, production is forecast to reach 530.1 Mt in 2030, representing a 20% increase from 2024 levels, and 595.2 Mt in 2036, equivalent to a 34% increase.
“As noted in the program, our country is among the world leaders in proven coal reserves (more than 273 billion tons) and has every opportunity to effectively extract and use them to consistently meet domestic needs and export supplies”, according to the statement.
- Under the conservative scenario, Russia’s coal production is projected at 454 Mt in 2030, 460.5 Mt in 2036, and 460.8 Mt in 2050, which would represent a 4% increase by 2050 compared to 2024.
- Under the status quo scenario, output is expected to reach 491.6 Mt in 2030, 545.3 Mt in 2036, and 586.4 Mt in 2050 (+32% compared to 2024), respectively.
- The stress scenario, by contrast, envisages a decline in coal production to 438.3 Mt in 2030, 381.3 Mt in 2036, and 318.9 Mt in 2050 (28% below the 2024 level).
Since 2021, Russia’s coal and lignite production has decreased by 1.7%/year, reaching 413 Mt in 2025. Previously, it rebounded by 10% in 2021, after an 8% fall in 2020. Over 2009-2019, it increased by 4.8%/year. The production mainly comes from the Kuznetsk basin (65%). More than half of the coal and lignite is consumed in power plants (60% in 2025) and 6% is used in industry (Enerdata Global Energy Research).