The Russian government has extended through 31 October 2026 a temporary ban on diesel, marine fuel and gasoil exports by their direct producers. According to the government, the measure is intended to preserve stability in the domestic fuel market, amid stronger motor-fuel demand during the agricultural harvest season. A broader ban on fuel exports remains in place until 31 January 2027. The restriction specifically targeting direct producers had initially been due to expire on 30 September 2027.
Russia has experienced fuel shortages following Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure, which have disrupted domestic supplies. Russia was subsequently forced to import fuel from India, one of the largest buyers of its crude, to help alleviate the shortfall.
Moreover, the new restriction comes one month before the US midterm elections, as concerns over diesel prices grow in the United States. These concerns prompted the US administration to consider banning US diesel exports in an effort to curb a price surge that is already occurring ahead of the elections. According to our data, the US is the world’s largest diesel exporter. In 2025, the country exported 62.5 Mt of diesel, while Russia exported 34.2 Mt. Trump recently urged Ukraine to halt its strikes on Russian refineries, which he has said are “hurting the world” by limiting diesel exports.
Diesel prices have also raised concerns in Europe, following Trump’s statements regarding a potential US export ban. Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Europe replaced Russian diesel primarily with imports from the Middle East, supplemented by supplies from India and the United States. As disruptions in the Gulf caused by the war in Iran intensified, the US share of extra-EU diesel imports continued to increase. With Europe already deprived of Russian diesel, it remains partly dependent on US flows for middle distillates. A simultaneous restriction from Russia and the United States would therefore represent a major stress scenario for European supplies.
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