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Russia cuts forecasts on oil and gas export prices from 2024 to 2026

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has cut its price forecast for its natural gas and oil exports outside the ex-Soviet Union countries from 2024 to 2026. Russia’s gas exports to countries outside the ex-Soviet Union are now forecasted at US$434.6/1,000m3 in 2023, at US$321.7/1,000m3 in 2024 (-21% compared to previous forecast), US$308.3/1,000m3 in 2025 (-17%) and US$296/1,000m3 in 2026 (-13%).

Oil export prices are expected to hover around US$70/bbl between 2024 and 2026, while the Ministry expects Brent oil prices to average US$83.5/bbl in 2023, US$85/bbl in 2024, and US$76/bbl in 2026. In December 2022, a coalition of EU and G7 countries set a price cap on Russian crude oil at US$60/bbl.

In addition, the Ministry expects oil and gas condensate production to decrease by 1.3% in 2023 to 527 Mt (compared to 534 Mt in 2022) and by 0.76% in 2024 to 523 Mt. Oil and gas condensate production in Russia should recover in 2025 (530 Mt) and 2026 (540 Mt). Gas production is expected to decline by 5% in 2023 to 642 bcm, but is projected to recover in 2024 (+4%).