The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has cut its price forecast for its natural gas and oil exports outside the ex-Soviet Union countries from 2024 to 2026. Russia’s gas exports to countries outside the ex-Soviet Union are now forecasted at US$434.6/1,000m3 in 2023, at US$321.7/1,000m3 in 2024 (-21% compared to previous forecast), US$308.3/1,000m3 in 2025 (-17%) and US$296/1,000m3 in 2026 (-13%).
Oil export prices are expected to hover around US$70/bbl between 2024 and 2026, while the Ministry expects Brent oil prices to average US$83.5/bbl in 2023, US$85/bbl in 2024, and US$76/bbl in 2026. In December 2022, a coalition of EU and G7 countries set a price cap on Russian crude oil at US$60/bbl.
In addition, the Ministry expects oil and gas condensate production to decrease by 1.3% in 2023 to 527 Mt (compared to 534 Mt in 2022) and by 0.76% in 2024 to 523 Mt. Oil and gas condensate production in Russia should recover in 2025 (530 Mt) and 2026 (540 Mt). Gas production is expected to decline by 5% in 2023 to 642 bcm, but is projected to recover in 2024 (+4%).