According to “The Energy Development in Vietnam to 2025 with a vision up to 2035”, the total primary energy supply in Vietnam is expected to growth by 5.3%/year between 2016 and 2025 and by 4.8%/year between 2016 and 2035, increasing from 80.5 Mtoe in 2015 to 218 Mtoe in 2035.
Over the 2016-2025 period, coal demand is set to increase by 7.9%/year, followed by natural gas (5.7%/year) and oil (4.4%/year). Despite the high coal consumption growth rate, coal demand forecasts are lower than in previous estimates, i.e. the business-as-usual scenario described in the Coal Industry Development Planning to 2020: the forecast coal demand for domestic customers will be 6% lower in 2020 (compared to the previous estimates), 9% lower in 2025 and 8% lower in 2030, while the coal demand for power generation will be 7% lower in 2020, 11% lower in 2025 and 9% lower in 2030. Coal will cover 37% of the primary consumption in 2025 (from 40% in 2018) and 38% in 2035. The share of renewables in the energy mix is expected to reach 28% in 2030 (biomass accounted for 17% of primary consumption in 2018) and 30% in 2035, while oil should remain at 20-22% (24% in 2018) and natural gas at 11-13% (9% in 2018). The share of hydropower should be limited (down from 10% in 2018).
The proposed scenario is based on a GDP growth hypothesis of 7%/year over the period 2016-2035, combined with energy-saving rates compared to a business-as-usual development of 4.1% in 2020, 5.9% in 2025, 8.1% in 2030 and 10% in 2035, and a 15% CO2 reduction target by 2030.