According to the Polish gas transmission system operator Gaz-System, Poland’s gas demand is forecast to increase by 60% over the next 10-13 years, from nearly 21 bcm in 2019 to over 30 bcm. The country will use gas as a transition fuel before switching to nuclear and renewables. In 2040, gas should account for 30% of Poland’s power mix, followed by wind (30%), nuclear (16%) and solar (5%).
Since 2014, gas consumption increased by 3.4%/year on average to reach 21 bcm in 2019. Poland has installed 2.5 GW of gas-fired projects since 2010 but only 16% of the gas is consumed in the power sector. In 2019, the country imported 17.7 bcm of gas (+12%), of which 3.5 bcm is LNG. Russia is the main gas supplier, although its share is declining rapidly (65% in 2019, down from 73% in 2018); imports from Russia take place through a long-term contract for 9 bcm/year until 2022. In 2019, the state-owned energy group PGNiG announced that it would not renew its contract.