Pakistan's new NDC targets 50% cut in GHG emissions by 2035 compared to BAU

Pakistan has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), committing to halve its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), corresponding to limiting GHG emissions to 1,280 MtCO₂eq (instead of the projected 2,559 MtCO₂eq). Of this 50% reduction, 17% is unconditional (corresponding to a 435 MtCO₂eq reduction) and the remaining 33% reduction (844 MtCO₂eq) is conditional, depending on US$565.7bn in international financing, technology access and commensurate ambition and action at the global level. The 50% reduction target would still result in more than doubling total GHG emissions by 2035, from 405 MtCO₂eq in 2015 and about 525 MtCO₂eq in 2023.

To reach this target, Pakistan commits to a transition toward clean sources, requiring large-scale investments in renewable energy, grid modernization, and efficiency improvements. The country will focus on renewables (including hydropower) and "clean energy", whose installed capacities should reach 38.5 GW and 43.2 GW, respectively, by 2035. In addition, Pakistan Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy targets an emission reduction of 35 MtCO₂eq by 2030 through upgraded industrial processes, adoption of efficient appliances, and enhanced demandside management.

In its first NDC (2016), Pakistan did not set an unconditional target and the conditional reduction target was 20%. The second NDC (2021) set a 50% reduction target compared to a BAU scenario, divided into an unconditional reduction target of 15% and a conditional target of 35%.