OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year, following a slight downward adjustment from its previous assessment (OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report October 2026, 13/10/2026). Global oil demand is expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d to reach 105.7 mb/d in 2026.
- In the OECD, demand is projected to decline by approximately 0.2 mb/d over the year. Within the group, demand in OECD Europe is forecast to fall by around 190 kb/d year-on-year and that of OECD Asia Pacific by approximately 220 kb/d; this decrease will be partly offset by a 200 kb/d growth in OECD Americas, supported by solid economic activity, according to the report.
- In non-OECD countries, oil demand is projected to grow by around 390 kb/d in 2026 year-on-year. Latin America and Africa are expected to drive this increase, with each region recording growth of approximately 130 kb/d. Demand in Other Asia (Asia without China and India) and India is forecast to rise by around 110 kb/d and 40 kb/d, respectively. Meanwhile, China is expected to experience a temporary, marginal decline of approximately 60 kb/d, while demand in the Middle East is projected to decrease by around 70 kb/d.
OPEC expects deferred oil demand to materialise in 2027. Global oil demand is forecast to rebound, growing by 2.55 mb/d year-on-year to average 108.3 mb/d, an upward revision from the previous month's projection of +2.4 mb/d. “This is assuming that oil demand in 2026 will indeed soften as currently expected and will be further bolstered next year by the need to replenish oil inventories at large”, the organisation specified. By region, demand across the OECD is expected to increase by approximately 0.5 mb/d year-on-year, while non-OECD demand is projected to rise by around 2 mb/d.