The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has published its first assessment of 2025 oil demand levels, forecasting a slowdown in global oil demand. In absolute terms, the OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.25 mb/d in 2024 to 104.36 mb/d (after a 2.46 mb/d growth in 2023) and by 1.85 mb/d in 2025 to 106.2 mb/d. According to the OPEC, oil consumption is expected to be sustained during 2024 by robust demand for air and automotive mobility, as well as a strong activity in industries, construction, and agriculture in non-OECD countries. In countries like China and the Middle East, oil demand is expected to be supported by an increased petrochemical capacity and margins.
On the supply side, the OPEC forecasts that the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan will be the primary sources of supply growth in 2024, while non-OPEC countries are expected to rise their production by 1.3 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025. Offshore oil production in the US is expected to account for 49% of non-OPEC production growth, a figure that in absolute terms is estimated to reach 70.4 mb/d in 2024 and 71.7 mb/d in 2025.
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