The OPEC has released its World Oil Outlook 2024, including long-term projections and assessment for the global oil and energy industry.
Considering the recent energy and economic-related developments, the OPEC expects global energy demand to increase by 24% and oil demand reaching 120.1 mb/d by the end 2050. Oil demand is expected to be dominated by non-OECD country, rising from 56.6 mb/d in 2023 to 84.6 mb/d by 2050 (+28 mb/d), with growth coming particularly from India (+8 mb/d between 2023 and 2050) and China (+2.5 mb/d).
The OPEC also underlined the need to keep investing, estimating that global liquids supply could rise to 113.5 mb/d by 2030, 119 mb/d by 2045 and 120.2 mb/d by 2050 (from 102 mb/d in 2023). Supply from outside the OPEC+ group is expected to rise dramatically and then fall gradually from the early 2030’s, decreasing from 51.7 mb/d in 2023 to 59 mb/d in 2030, and 57.3 mb/d by 2050, due to a declining US production (-1.5 mb/d between 2023 and 2050), which would be partly offset by a rising supply from Canada and Brazil.